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Indian Software Stocks Lag on Weak Earnings

Good morning, I'm Chiranjivi Chakraborty in Mumbai. Indian markets may open slightly higher today, supported by Wall Street’s rally and positive regional cues. However, activity could stay muted due to a weak start to earnings season and uncertainty around a potential US-India trade deal. Key things to watch today:

Key Market Movers

US-India Trade Talks: India aims for a better deal than Indonesia, which cut tariffs from 32% to 19%. With rising trade tensions and competition from Hong Kong, India needs favorable terms to attract supply chain investors under the “China+1” strategy.

SBI Share Sale: State Bank of India’s $2.9 billion share sale will test investor appetite. It comes amid pressure on bank margins and slow loan growth. Axis Bank’s Q1 results later today could further sway sentiment in the banking sector.

Tesla’s India Launch: Morgan Stanley expects limited impact on local automakers due to Tesla’s high pricing. The imported Model Y costs ?6 million—five times India’s average car price—keeping it in the premium 1% market segment.

Analyst Updates

HCL Tech: Cut to Sell at Elara; target ?1,490

ICICI Lombard: Cut to Hold at Investec; target ?2,150

INOX India: Initiated at Buy by Monarch Networth; target ?1,500

In Focus

Software Exporters Struggle: Nifty IT continues to underperform, facing its third straight quarter of lagging the broader market. A weak start to earnings adds to the pressure. Still, technical indicators show the sector nearing support levels, with RSI near oversold territory—suggesting downside may be limited.

Worth Reading

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China's crackdown on industrial overcapacity and what it means for commodities

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