Rice stocks with government are at record levels; it’s time to allow exports
In the last 10 years, rice stocks were never as high but inflation is in double digits possibly because high procurement is squeezing supply in private market. Lifting export restrictions can ease pressure to procure and thereby restore balance
So far, the monsoon gods have been kind. The deficiency of rains in some parts of India in June has been wiped out by good rains in July and August. Most of India has received good rains in the first ten days of August.
If good rainfall continues in the remaining period of August and September, rice production should reach the target of 136.30 million tonnes (mt). This may bring down rice inflation and the Government’s central pool stocks may further swell which will mean higher carrying cost.
Haryana and Punjab recorded percent 43 and 45 percent deficient rainfall respectively. In the first 10 days of August, Haryana has received good rains, and the deficiency is now down to 23 percent. But Punjab, a major contributor to rice procurement for central pool, continues to have cumulative deficiency of 43 percent.
It will not have an adverse impact on production of rice, but it means that underground water resources will not be recharged sufficiently. From a long-term perspective, this is not good news.
Last year, seven subdivisions (18 percent of the total area) received deficient monsoon rainfall. These include rice producing regions like Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, East UP, South interior Karnataka and Kerala. For reasons which are not adequately explained, the rice production in 2023-24 did not suffer much and as per 3rd advance estimate (June 2024), rice production was 136.7 mt, as compared to 135.75 mt in 2022-23. Even the yield was higher at 2.87 tonne/ha as against 2.83/ha.
As a result of a ban on export of broken and raw rice (white rice) and export duty of 20 percent on par boiled rice, the export of rice in 2023-24 was 11.11 mt against 17.86 mt in 2022-23.
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